Objective: Heart failure is responsible for a huge burden in hospital care. Our goal was to evaluate the value of N-terminal-pro-brain natriuretic peptide (Nt-proBNP) on predicting death or hospital readmission after hospital discharge in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF).
Methods: From March 2003 to April 2005, 135 consecutive patients (97 male and 38 female, mean age 60.7 years +/- 13.1 years) with chronic heart failure [dilated cardiomyopathy (44%) and coronary heart disease (35%)] were included in this study. Plasma concentrations of the Nt-proBNP were measured by ELISA on admission. All patients received conventional therapy and were followed up for 24 months. The primary end point was death or readmission.
Results: (1) During the follow up period (640 days +/- 100 days), 11 patients died and 39 patients rehospitalized, the median Nt-proBNP level on admission was significantly higher in patients died during the follow up period (5908 ng/L) than that of rehospitalized patients (2768 ng/L, P = 0.038). Plasma Nt-proBNP level on admission were significantly higher in primary end point group (n = 50, 2947 ng/L) than that in non-primary end point group (n = 85, 917 ng/L, P < 0.01). (2) Variables associated with an increased hazard of death and/or rehospitalization were Nt-proBNP and NYHA degree when analyzed by logistic regression models. Increased Log Nt-proBNP was the strongest independent predictor of an adverse outcome of CHF (odds ratio 13.8, 95% confidence interval 2.29 to 2.78, P < 0.01). (3) Area under the curve for Nt-proBNP in evaluating prognosis of CHF patients was 0.885 (positive predictive value 88.5%, negative predictive value 11.5%).
Conclusion: Nt-proBNP level on admission is a strong predictor of rehospitalization and death within 24 months after hospital discharge in patients with chronic heart failure.