Purpose: This study was aimed at predicting the demand for medical services of people with mild symptoms of common cold. Three alternatives to cope with this condition were presented in questionnaires, which were: consulting physicians, taking OTC (over-the-counter) medicine, and doing nothing. Our prediction of employees' choices with these alternatives will contribute to cost-containment policies of health insurers.
Method: We mailed questionnaires to 12,000 selected randomly employees, insured by "A" health insurance company. The questionnaires were designed a hypothetical question method, utilizing several criteria, including number of OTC medicines on hand, and socioeconomic status. A multinomial probit model was used for our estimation and analysis, with alternatives set as dependent variables.
Results: There were 3139 respondents, and the response rate was 26.2%. Gender, age, number of family members, and income level did not have any significant effect on the choice of any of the three alternaives. On the other hand, having a family doctor and a number of OTC medicines on hand had significant consequences. In males with a family doctor and without OTC medicine, the probabilities of choose to consult with a physicians, take on OTC medication, or doing nothing, were predicted to be 0.46, 0.32, and 0.22, respectively. People with three or more kinds of OTC medicine are more likely to choose OTC medication than physicians.
Conclusion: The study suggests that more kinds of OTC medicine on hand of for individual with mild symptoms of common cold, the leaves the demand for medical services. To reduce medical expenses through consulting medical services, it might be effective for health insurers to provide insured employees with incentives to keep more OTC medicines on hand.