Modelling the spread of penicillin-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae in day-care and evaluation of intervention

Stat Med. 2005 Dec 15;24(23):3593-607. doi: 10.1002/sim.2199.

Abstract

In 1995, a disease control and intervention project was initiated in Malmöhus county in southern Sweden to limit the spread of penicillin-resistant pneumococci. Since most of the carriers of pneumococci are preschool children, and since most of the spread is believed to take place in day-care, a mathematical model, in the form of a stochastic process, for the spread in a day-care group was constructed. Effects of seasonal variation and size of the day-care group were particularly considered. The model was then used for comparing results from computer simulations without and with intervention. Results indicate that intervention is highly effective in day-care groups with more than ten children during the second half of the year.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study
  • Evaluation Study

MeSH terms

  • Biometry
  • Child Day Care Centers*
  • Child, Preschool
  • Computer Simulation
  • Disease Outbreaks / prevention & control
  • Disease Outbreaks / statistics & numerical data
  • Humans
  • Likelihood Functions
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Penicillin Resistance
  • Pneumococcal Infections / epidemiology
  • Pneumococcal Infections / prevention & control
  • Pneumococcal Infections / transmission*
  • Seasons
  • Stochastic Processes
  • Streptococcus pneumoniae / drug effects
  • Sweden / epidemiology