Background and objective: We intended to estimate the probability of developing and dying from cancer in Catalonia during the period 1998-2001.
Patients and method: We used a Bayesian model which incorporates data from the Tarragona and Girona Cancer Registries and from the Catalonia Mortality Registry. The probability of developing and dying from cancer has been calculated using a competitive risk-based methodology.
Results: Lifetime probability of developing cancer in Catalonia is almost 1 out of 2 (43.7%) for men and 1 out of 3 (32.1%) in women. The probability of dying from cancer is 29.1% for men and 17.9% in women. 67% of men and 56% of women diagnosed with cancer will die from this disease. One out of 14 men will develop a lung cancer during his life and 1 out of 11 women will develop breast cancer.
Conclusions: The observed rising in the probability of developing cancer in Catalonia over the last ten years highlights even more than ever the importance of this health problem.