Spatiotemporal stochastic forcing effects in an ensemble consisting of arrays of diffusively coupled Lorenz cells

Maria Nieves Lorenzo; Miguel A Santos; Vicente Pérez-Muñuzuri

doi:10.1063/1.1601791

Spatiotemporal stochastic forcing effects in an ensemble consisting of arrays of diffusively coupled Lorenz cells

Chaos. 2003 Sep;13(3):913-20. doi: 10.1063/1.1601791.

Authors

Maria Nieves Lorenzo¹, Miguel A Santos, Vicente Pérez-Muñuzuri

Affiliation

¹ Group of Nonlinear Physics, Faculty of Physics, University of Santiago de Compostela, E-15782 Santiago de Compostela, Spain. nieves@fmares.usc.es

PMID: 12946183
DOI: 10.1063/1.1601791

Abstract

Spatiotemporal stochastic forcing of an ensemble system consisting of chaotic Lorenz cells diffusively coupled is analyzed. The nontrivial effects of time and length correlations on the ensemble mean error and spread are studied and the implications to new trends in weather forecast methodologies are discussed. A maximum for the forecast scores is observed to occur for specific values of time and length correlations. This maximum is studied in terms of an interplay between the natural scales occurring in the system and the noise parameters.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Forecasting
Models, Statistical
Models, Theoretical
Nonlinear Dynamics*
Time Factors
Weather