Objective: This retrospective study was undertaken to evaluate the accuracy of risk-adjusted EuroSCORE models in predicting mortality in individual patients who are undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting.
Material and methods: The study population is a consecutive series of 1698 isolated primary and repeat coronary artery bypass grafting patients, inclusive patients in cardiogenic shock or resuscitation, operated in Kaunas Heart Center from January 1997 to December 2001. The pre-operative risk of death was calculated with EuroSCORE models and then compared with the actual outcome. The accuracy score was used to evaluate the reliability of each score to predict the individual outcome. The studied event was in-hospital death, defined as mortality during hospital stay, which was unlimited in time and included a stay in a secondary hospital without discharge home.
Results: Eighty deaths (4.7%) were observed. The age of this patients was 66.0+/-9.5 years, 73.7% were male and 3.7% were repeat procedures. In most patients who died the mean predictive scores were high. The EuroSCORE average was 11.0+/-4.3, with a range from 3 to 21.
Conclusions: The EuroSCORE presurgical predictive models were highly accurate to predict overall mortality, but were inaccurate to predict mortality in individual patients.