Deterioration of fresh ground water resources caused by salinization is a growing issue in many arid and semi-arid parts of the world. We discuss here the incipient salinization of a 10(4) km2 area of fresh ground water (<3,000 mg/L) in the semiarid Murray Basin of Australia caused by widespread changes in land use. Ground water 14C concentrations and unsaturated zone Cl soil water inventories indicate that the low salinity ground water originated mainly from palaeo-recharge during wet climatic periods more than 20,000 years ago. However, much of the soil water in the 20 to 60 m thick unsaturated zone throughout the area is generally saline (>15,000 mg/L) because of relatively high evapotranspiration during the predominantly semiarid climate of the last 20,000 years. Widespread clearing of native vegetation over the last 100 years and replacement with crops and pastures leads to enhancement of recharge rates that progressively displace the saline soil-water from the unsaturated zone into the ground water. To quantify the impact of this new hydrologic regime, a one-dimensional model that simulates projected ground water salinities as a function of depth to ground water, recharge rates, and soil water salt inventory was developed. Results from the model suggest that, in some areas, the ground water salinity within the top 10 m of the water table is likely to increase by a factor of 2 to 6 during the next 100 years. Ground water quality will therefore potentially degrade beyond the point of usefulness well before extraction of the ground water exhausts the resource.