Air pollution control devices (APCDs) are not compulsory for medical waste incinerators (MWIs) in developing countries. In South Africa, combustion gases are usually vented directly to the atmosphere at temperatures greater than the formation temperature of dioxin. The possibility of dioxin formation outside the incinerator stack has been hypothesized. A plume model has been developed and tested in the wind tunnel with a scale model of an incinerator stack. The plume temperature and trajectory predictions of the plume model were verified within a +/- 3% experimental accuracy. Using South African data, the plume model predicts that the residence time of gases in the temperature range of 150-450 degrees C in a plume is 1.3 sec on average for 5% of a year (18 days) at meteorological conditions resulting in wind speeds of less than 1 m/sec. Two published dioxin formation models were used to assess the probability of dioxin formation in the plume. The formation models predict that the average polychlorinated dibenzodioxins/furans (PCDD/Fs) formed in the plume will exceed the stack emission regulations in South Africa of 0.2 ng/Nm3 toxic equivalent quotient (TEQ) by between 2 and 40 times. The calculated concentrations do not include additional gaseous PCDD/F compounds that may be formed at high-temperature post-combustion zones through pyrosynthesis mechanisms.