Objectives: To investigate the correlation between the serum levels of the CC-chemokines RANTES, macrophage inflammatory protein (MIP)-1alpha and MIP-1beta, and the progression of HIV-1 disease.
Design: Retrospective analysis of serial serum samples from HIV-1 seroconverters selected according to clinical outcome.
Methods: Twenty-one patients, derived from a cohort recruited between 1985 and 1996 for a prospective study of the natural history of HIV infection, were analysed. All patients had at least one HIV-1-seronegative sample within 1 year prior to the first seropositive test and were followed longitudinally throughout the course of HIV-1 infection (mean follow-up, 73.5 months). Nine were rapid progressors (RP; patients who developed AIDS within 60 months of antibody seroconversion), seven were slow progressors (SP; patients who developed AIDS after 60 months), and five were long-term asymptomatic (LTA; patients with circulating CD4+ cells higher than 400 x 10(6)/l, no signs of HIV disease, no antiretroviral therapy for more than 96 months). A total of 339 serum samples was studied (mean, 16.1 per patient). The levels of RANTES, MIP-1alpha and MIP-1beta were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and correlated with different immunological and clinical parameters.
Results: Over the entire follow-up period, the geometric mean of serum RANTES was significantly higher in RP [68.6 ng/ml; 95% confidence interval (CI), 56.9-82.7] than in SP (23.7 ng/ml; 95% CI, 20.0-28.2; P < 0.001) and LTA (19.5 ng/ml; 95% CI, 15.5-24.5; P < 0.001). This difference was already significant during the early clinical stages, when patients had peripheral blood CD4+ cell counts still greater than 400 x 10(6)/l (P < 0.001). By contrast, the mean serum levels of MIP-1alpha and MIP-1beta did not differ significantly between the three study groups. Multivariate analysis using the Cox proportional hazard model demonstrated that the mean serum concentration of RANTES before the development of AIDS was independently associated with the time to AIDS (relative risk, 4.5; 95% CI, 1.1-18.2; P = 0.035). In patients with low versus high mean serum RANTES before the fall of CD4+ cells below 400 x 10(6)/l, the median AIDS-free time was 117.5 and 42.7 months, respectively (P = 0.037).
Conclusion: These data suggest that an elevation of serum RANTES predicts a rapid progression of the disease since the early stages of HIV-1 infection.